GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has upgraded its forecast for global merchandise trade expansion in 2026 to 3.9 percent. This new projection more than doubles the 1.9 percent estimate released in March. The upgrade was supported by stronger trade performance in the first half, supply chain shifts, and increased investments in artificial intelligence equipment. During the first six months of 2026, global merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent. The WTO also anticipates a 4.1 percent increase in merchandise trade in 2027.
A significant factor in the improved trade figures was the rising demand for technology hardware. Goods associated with artificial intelligence made up 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth in the first half. These include semiconductors, servers, and other infrastructure equipment used in computing. Trade in AI-enabled products surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year. Additionally, WTO estimates suggest that global spending on AI infrastructure will increase by at least 30 percent in 2026.
Energy and shipping markets experienced notable disruptions during this period. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined approximately 24 percent in the first half of 2026. Liquefied natural gas exports from the region fell by 47 percent. However, increased shipments from other regions mitigated the overall decline in crude oil to about 6 percent globally. LNG exports worldwide decreased around 1 percent. Meanwhile, global container throughput grew by 3.9 percent through July, reflecting shifts in trade across alternative suppliers, ports, and transportation routes.
Technology demand bolsters stronger goods trade
The prospects for the services sector remained weaker than those for merchandise. The WTO lowered its 2026 forecast for growth in commercial services trade from 4.8 percent to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East led to softer results in transport and international travel, with second-quarter international tourist arrivals decreasing by 0.8 percent. For the first half, arrivals stayed 0.4 percent above the same period in 2025, while growth in international travel spending also slowed during the second quarter.
Certain service categories continued to expand at faster rates. Exports of computer services increased by 18 percent year-on-year in the first quarter and are estimated to have risen by 12 percent in the second. Financial services exports grew by 14 percent from the previous year in the second quarter. The World Trade Organization projects a 6.4 percent growth in commercial services trade for 2027. It also forecasts global GDP will expand by 2.6 percent in 2026 and further increase by 2.9 percent in 2027.
Asia leads regional export growth forecast
Regional outlooks reveal significant differences in expected merchandise export performance. Asia is predicted to achieve 9.9 percent export growth in 2026. North America follows with 5.7 percent, and Africa is projected to grow by 5.6 percent. South America is expected to see a 3.4 percent increase, while Europe faces a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East’s outlook remains the weakest, with merchandise exports forecasted to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Forecasts for merchandise imports vary greatly among regions. Asia is expected to report 9.5 percent import growth, with Africa at 8.9 percent. North American imports are projected to increase by 1.4 percent, contrasting with a 0.5 percent rise in Europe. The Middle East is anticipated to experience a 15.4 percent decline in merchandise imports. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that the latest trade figures demonstrated resilience while also reflecting uneven effects from economic and geopolitical disruptions.