ROME / RankWire.AI / – According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, worldwide cereal production is expected to reach approximately 2.98 billion tonnes in 2026. This figure indicates a 2% decrease from the record harvest achieved in 2025. The latest forecasts also show a shortfall of 3.4 million tonnes compared to earlier estimates. While there is an annual decline, global cereal output is projected to remain the second-highest on record, with a reduction of roughly 61.1 million tonnes from the previous year.
The weaker global outlook is largely driven by maize, with production forecasted at 1.309 billion tonnes. Drought and high temperatures have lowered yield expectations across parts of the European Union. France and Poland experienced some of the most notable downward revisions. Smaller reductions also affected India and Paraguay, while increased yields in Argentina and Brazil partially offset the decline. Both South American producers are on track for maize harvests well above their recent averages.
Despite the previous assessment, the outlook for wheat has improved, though global production remains below last year’s levels. The Food and Agriculture Organization now estimates wheat output at 810.7 million tonnes, reflecting a rise of 4.2 million tonnes from its earlier prediction. Better yield expectations have boosted forecasts for Canada and Morocco. Additionally, estimates for Russia and Ukraine have increased, whereas dry conditions have led to lower projections for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Overall, global wheat production still falls 3.8% short of 2025 figures.
Maize setbacks influence worldwide grain production
For the 2026/27 season, global rice output is projected at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis. This total signifies a 1.9% decrease from the revised record set in the previous season. Improved crop yields in Myanmar and Sri Lanka support the latest outlook. However, these gains are offset by weaker projections for China, the Philippines, and the United States. U.S. rice cultivation has also fallen to levels unseen in decades, diminishing the country’s expected contribution to global supplies.
Projected worldwide cereal consumption for 2026/27 reaches 2.965 billion tonnes, representing a 0.2% increase from the previous season. Both coarse grains and rice consumption are expected to grow, although wheat usage is likely to decline from last season’s high levels. The demand for rice globally is expected to reach 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth. Coarse grain consumption is also supported by feed demand, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
High cereal stockpiles persist despite a lower production outlook
Cereal inventories worldwide at the end of 2027 are forecasted at 947.2 million tonnes. This figure is 10.7 million tonnes below earlier projections but still 1.8 million tonnes higher than the opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, compared to 31.9% in the previous season. Reserve stocks of wheat are projected to grow in Russia and Ukraine, while inventories of maize and barley decline, largely influencing the overall stock estimates.
Trade in cereals across the globe for 2026/27 is expected to total 509.3 million tonnes, a rise of 1.7 million tonnes from previous estimates. Despite this, the total remains below the record volume recorded in 2025/26. The increase is mainly driven by higher maize exports, with Argentina expected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. For rice, global trade is projected at 60.5 million tonnes, representing a 1.9% decrease from the record set during 2025.